Los SISTEMAS para seleccionar un probable ganador en las carreras de caballos (Artículo en Inglés).

Horse Racing Systems

The Ten Commandments of Good Horse Racing Systems

Part 1

One of the men who has most made a study of Horse Racing Systems is Nick Mordin, racing journalist and writer.  From his studies he came up with this helpful summary of the features of a good race betting system.

I've split up this advice onto different pages to make it more likely you will think carefully about each condition when considering the value of systems you are presented with.  I don't claim that all of our systems will fit all these criteria.  I don't have all the answers but I aim to give you a variety of views to help you make up your own mind.

1)  The goal of a system should be not to pick winners but to identify a type of horse that the betting public consistently underrates.

You can waste a great deal of time studying the form book simply to find rules that suggest a horse may be a likely winner.  Just because you pick a winner does not mean that betting will be profitable in the long term.  If a great proportion of the betting public can also see that this is a winner then the odds you can obtain will be very low.  The objective of the professional bettor should be to find horses that are UNDERVALUED by the general public.  Betting consistenly on horses whose chances of winning are greater than their bookmaker odds suggest will bring profits over the medium to longer term.  Only when you have found errors in the thinking of the market as a whole should you turn to the form book to see if you can profitably exploit this.

 

2)  The best systems are based on facts that defy most punters' expectations.

If you remember that you are essentially betting against other punters (both in a bookies and on betting exchanges) then you should realise that if you bet on the same things that they do you cannot hope to succeed in the long term.

Try to find facts that defy the expectations of most punters.  (For example only: - well bred horses win less often than poorly bred ones in low class races; horses win less often in first-time blinkers; etc...)

The reaction of a common punter when you explain your system should not be "That's clever" but rather "That sounds like rubbish - I can't se that!".  Only you should know different.

 

3)  Be suspicious of a system that is based on information that can easily be gleaned from any daily newspaper.

It is difficult to base an esoteric system on information that is straight out of the Racing Post.  This info is pinned up on the walls of every betting shop in the country and forms the basis of most punters' selection processes.  Systems based on more difficult to come by information such as physical appearance, gallop reports, pedigree analysis and trainer patterns are more likely to bring results.